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artie_fufkin · 10/01/2018 10:06 am

OK, here we go:

Catcher - Molina will be the starting catcher. The variable is Kelly. There's no use sending him back to Memphis, and he hasn't shown he can hit well enough to be an every day catcher at the major league level. Pena is arbitration eligible. I assume he takes the minimum and stays with the Cardinals or joins the pile with the likes of Eric Fryer, Tony Cruz, Gerald Laird, Jason LaRue, Gary Bennett and Kelly Stinnett.

First base - Carpenter is owed ~$15 million, with a team option for $18.5 million in 2020. They still could probably get a decent return for him, as long as the national media keeps talking about how great he is. I'm not sure I can stomach another year of watching him hold the Cardinals hostage. Adams is an UFA who won't be here if Carpenter is. He's not a 500 ABs guy, but as part of a platoon with, maybe Wisdom? Maybe.

Second base - Wong is the starter, and Munoz can play there if …er, when he goes on the DL. Garcia is arbitration eligible, which is what doomed Descalso. Maybe Mejia gets the utility infielder's spot.

Shortstop - DeJong's contract is guaranteed through 2023, and his salary doesn't start to escalate for another two years. He's going nowhere, but he has to hit better than .241.

Third base - Gyorko will be in his final guaranteed year at $13 million. If they move him, it will free up a spot for Widsom, but I'm not sure I'm ready to give Wisdom 500 ABs.

Left field - The biggest dilemma for the Cardinals will be what to do with Ozuna, who is in his final year of arbitration eligibility. Do they commit to a cleanup hitter with a career OPS of .781, or do they pay him for 2019 and let him walk? It certainly looks like 2017 was the outlier.

Center field - Bader needs to cut down on his strikeouts. If he's at the top of the lineup like he's supposed to be, he's a 20/20 guy next season.

Right field - Fowler still has three years left at $16.5 million per. There's no way the Cardinals eat that much dough. Maybe they find a team in the AL to off-load Martinez. He obviously can hit, but I think he's the worst defensive player I've ever seen at the major league level since Greg Luzinski retired. It's silly to keep O'Neill in Memphis next year, but it's even sillier to have him in St. Louis watching Dexter hit .180 and Martinez turning fly balls into extra base hits. Garcia is going to be pushing for time next year, and Mercado and Arozerena are looming.

Starting pitching - Mikolas and Flats are the two locks for the rotation. Wacha is arbitration eligible and he'll be back. It looks like 4 and 5 heading into ST will be Gant and Gomber. Ponce and Hudson will get a look, and if they don't start, they'll end up in the bullpen.

Bullpen - Martinez's audition as the closer went better than expected. The questions are whether he wants to be a starter again, and can his arm handle the closer's role. Hicks is the primary right-handed set up man. Cecil is on the books for two more years, so unless Moz and Gersch can find a sucker, he's back. Gregerson is owed $5 million. The Cardinals may have to eat that. Leone and Shreve are both arbitration eligible. I assume Brebbia and Webb both have options and will start the season in Memphis.

Last edited by artie_fufkin (10/01/2018 10:09 am)

Mags · 10/01/2018 1:15 pm

Mercado is now with Cleveland. He is probably a defender at Bader’s level.

They got a left handed hitter named Williams, who did o.k. At Memphis.

APIAD · 10/01/2018 3:19 pm

No mention of reyes. Maybe he finally play a role at the majors.

Your tun down seems about right. Idk if they could sign and trade ozuna. Ive seen to little of oniell to say he is an everyday player. What ive seen ive liked.

Im sort of done with gyorko as an everyday player. With munoz on the team gyorko seem repetitive as far as having a guy who can play a lot of positions. Carp is a lock to be on the 2019 cardinals, like it or not. Idk if a adams, carp, wisdom platoon would work. Throw munoz in a few times as well.

I think they will keep fouler through the offseason but i see a very short leash on him.

forsberg_us · 10/01/2018 3:50 pm

My prediction of what they'll do, not what I think they should do.

C- Molina. Kelly didn't show enough to beat out Pena as the back up, even after Schildt (who would have known him from Memphis) took over as manager. But the backup catcher is largely irrelevant. Hopefully Knizner is ready when the time comes.

1B- I hate it, but it's going to be Carpenter

2B- Wong

SS- DeJong

3B- I think this is where the Cardinals make their "splash." After they get out-bid in the Harper and Machado bidding (they can't help it if some other team is willing to bid more than what the Cardinals think the player is worth), the Cardinals sign either Donaldson or Moustakas.

LF- Ozuna. I don't see Moz making the trade only to ship him out again after 1 season. Ozuna will play out his contract and the Cardinals will make a "fair" offer after the 2019 season, only to be out-bid by another team that decided to over-pay.

CF- Bader

RF- Fowler. Martinez will get shipped to the AL, and the Cardinals won't be willing to eat enough of the contract to get another team to take him. Fans will be livid and will express their displeasure by purchasing 3.4M tickets.

SP- The Cardinals aren't going to pay Martinez $12M to close. He's going to be told to get in shape and plan to be a starter. Martinez is joined by Mikolas, Flaherty, Wacah and ????

RP- There are a lot of closers/former closers available this off-season. Cody Allen, Zach Britton, Sean Doolittle, Jeurys Familia. Andrew Miller will also be a free agent. I think they sign someone to close, Hicks, Leone, Brebbia and someone from Memphis are the RH. Shreve and Cecil are the LHs. I think they move on from Gregerson. I'm about 50-50 that they move on from Cecil, but I think they give it 1 more year (not that they should, but I doubt they eat that much money).

artie_fufkin · 10/01/2018 5:11 pm

"Mercado is now with Cleveland"

Oops.

artie_fufkin · 10/01/2018 5:14 pm

"No mention of reyes."

He's done nothing in the last two years to warrant any mention about a role in 2019. My prediction is he shows up to Spring Training and on the first day gets a wicked bad sunburn that sidelines him for the entire season.

artie_fufkin · 10/01/2018 5:16 pm

"After they get out-bid in the Harper and Machado bidding"

On the way home from work, I heard the Rockies' radio announcers say the Cardinals will be "all in on Machado." I laughed so hard I nearly drove off the road.

Mags · 10/01/2018 6:10 pm

For the next two years, the Cardinals will continue to throw money at free agents and field mediocre teams while providing venue for an aging super star to celebrate himself. In the meantime they’ll win just enough games to miss out on most of the top draft picks.

APIAD · 10/01/2018 7:06 pm

artie_fufkin wrote:
"No mention of reyes."

He's done nothing in the last two years to warrant any mention about a role in 2019. My prediction is he shows up to Spring Training and on the first day gets a wicked bad sunburn that sidelines him for the entire season.

I agree but i have hope. They certainly had a chance to sell very high on kelly and reyes.

forsberg_us · 10/01/2018 7:26 pm

Mags wrote:
For the next two years, the Cardinals will continue to throw money at free agents and field mediocre teams while providing venue for an aging super star to celebrate himself. In the meantime they’ll win just enough games to miss out on most of the top draft picks.

They don’t have a choice. They have little to no position player talent in the minors. The best position player prospects in the system are 18.

APIAD · 10/02/2018 5:39 am

Catchers
Yasmani Grandal (30 years old, 2.6 WAR)
Wilson Ramos (31, 2.5)
Kurt Suzuki (35, 1.7)
A.J. Ellis (38, 1.0)
Martin Maldonado (32, 0.9)
Nick Hundley (35, 0.8)
Jonathan Lucroy (33, 0.5)
Devin Mesoraco (31, 0.5)
Rene Rivera (35, 0.4)
Matt Wieters (33, 0.4)
Jeff Mathis (36, -0.2)
Drew Butera (35, -0.4)

First basemen
Steve Pearce (36 years old, 1.3 WAR)
Joe Mauer (36, 0.9)
Matt Adams (30, 0.8)
Mark Reynolds (35, 0.4)
Lucas Duda (32, 0.0)
Hanley Ramirez (35, -0.2)

Second basemen
Jed Lowrie (35 years old, 4.8 WAR)
Ian Kinsler (37, 2.3)
Asdrubal Cabrera (33, 2.3)
Daniel Descalso (32, 1.9)
DJ LeMahieu (30, 1.3)
Brian Dozier (32, 1.2)
Daniel Murphy (34, 0.3)
Logan Forsythe (32, 0.2)
Sean Rodriguez (34, 0.0)
Andrew Romine (33, 0.0)
Neil Walker (33, -0.2)

Third basemen
Eduardo Escobar (30 years old, 3.2 WAR)
Adrian Beltre (40, 0.6)
Josh Donaldson (33, 0.6)
Pablo Sandoval (32, 0.1)
Chase Headley (35, -0.4)
Danny Valencia (34, -0.4)
Jose Reyes (36, -0.8)
Luis Valbuena (33, -0.9)

Shortstops
Manny Machado (26 years old, 5.7 WAR)
Jose Iglesias (29, 2.5)
Elvis Andrus (30, 1.2) -- Can opt out of the four years and $58 million remaining on his contract.
Jordy Mercer (32, 1.1)
Freddy Galvis (29, 0.6)
Adeiny Hechavarria (30, 0.4)
Alcides Escobar (32, -0.5)
Eric Sogard (33, -0.8)

Left fielders
Michael Brantley (32 years old, 2.6 WAR)
Marwin Gonzalez (30, 1.3)
Curtis Granderson (38, 0.6)
Craig Gentry (35, 0.5)
Cameron Maybin (32, 0.4)
Matt Joyce (34, 0.1)
Gregor Blanco (35, -0.4)
Hunter Pence (36, -0.8)

Center fielders
Leonys Martin (31 years old, 2.5 WAR)
A.J. Pollock (31, 1.9)
Adam Jones (33, 0.6)
Rajai Davis (38, 0.3)
Austin Jackson (32, -0.3)

Right fielders
Bryce Harper (26 years old, 3.1 WAR)
Nick Markakis (35, 2.6)
Jason Heyward (29, 2.2) -- Can opt out of the five years and $106 million remaining on his contract.
Carlos Gonzalez (33, 1.9)
Andrew McCutchen (32, 1.8)
Jon Jay (33, 1.1)
Lonnie Chisenhall (30, 0.8)
Melky Cabrera (34, 0.4)
Jose Bautista (38, 0.4)
Carlos Gomez (33, -0.3)
Chris Young (35, -0.5)

Designated hitters
Nelson Cruz (38 years old, 2.4 WAR)
Evan Gattis (32, 0.3)
Pedro Alvarez (32, -0.2)

Starting pitchers
Patrick Corbin (29 years old, 5.7 WAR)
Dallas Keuchel (31, 3.4)
Clayton Kershaw (31, 3.2) -- Can opt out of the two years and $65 million remaining on his contract.
Charlie Morton (35, 2.9)
David Price (33, 2.5) -- Can opt out of the four years and $127 million remaining on his contract.
J.A. Happ (36, 2.5)
CC Sabathia (38, 2.2)
Lance Lynn (32, 2.2)
Trevor Cahill (31, 2.1)
Derek Holland (32, 1.9)
Clay Buchholz (34, 1.7)
Anibal Sanchez (35, 1.6)
Nathan Eovaldi (29, 1.5)
Gio Gonzalez (33, 1.4)
Hyun-Jin Ryu (32, 1.2)
Matt Harvey (30, 1.1)
Jeremy Hellickson (32, 1.1)
Wade Miley (32, 1.0)
Garrett Richards (32, 1.0)
Tyson Ross (32, 1.0)
Brett Anderson (31, 0.8)
Edwin Jackson (35, 0.8)
Marco Estrada (35, 0.5)
Bartolo Colon (46, 0.2)
Jaime Garcia (32, 0.0)
Adam Wainwright (37, 0.0)
Drew Pomeranz (30, -0.3)
Miguel Gonzalez (35, -0.3)
Francisco Liriano (35, -0.4)
Chris Tillman (31, -0.4)
Hisashi Iwakuma (35, N/A) -- Hasn't appeared in the Majors in 2018.

Relief pitchers
Adam Ottavino (33 years old, 2.2 WAR)
Jeurys Familia (29, 1.8)
David Robertson (34, 1.3)
Craig Kimbrel (31, 1.2)
Sergio Romo (36, 1.0)
Jesse Chavez (35, 1.0)
Oliver Perez (37, 0.8)
Jake Diekman (32, 0.7)
Tony Sipp (35, 0.7)
Brad Brach (33, 0.7)
Zach Duke (36, 0.7)
Joe Kelly (31, 0.6)
Justin Wilson (31, 0.6)
Mark Melancon (34, 0.5) -- Can opt out of the two years and $28 million remaining on his contract.
Tyler Clippard (34, 0.4)
Andrew Miller (34, 0.4)
Kelvin Herrera (29,0.4)
Tony Barnette (35, 0.3)
Aaron Loup (31, 0.3)
Bud Norris (34, 0.3)
Jonny Venters (34, 0.3)
Adam Warren (31, 0.3)
John Axford (36, 0.2)
Greg Holland (33, 0.2)
Shawn Kelley (35, 0.2)
Jerry Blevins (35, 0.1)
Santiago Casilla (38, 0.1)
Fernando Salas (34, 0.0)
Ryan Madson (38, 0.0)
Zach McAllister (31, 0.0)
Blake Wood (33, 0.0)
Daniel Hudson (32, -0.1)
Zach Britton (31, -0.1)
Jorge De La Rosa (38, -0.1)
Jeanmar Gomez (31, -0.1)
AJ Ramos (32, -0.2)
Jim Johnson (36, -0.2)
Matt Belisle (39, -0.2)
Randall Delgado (29, -0.2)
Boone Logan (34, -0.3)
Brad Ziegler (39, -0.3)
Cody Allen (30, -0.3)
Hector Santiago (31, -0.4)
Peter Moylan (40, -0.4)
Junichi Tazawa (33, -0.6)
Blaine Boyer (37, -0.9)
Josh Tomlin (34, -1.3)
David Phelps (32, N/A) -- Hasn't appeared in the Majors in 2018.
Joaquin Benoit (41, N/A) -- Hasn't appeared in the Majors in 2018.

forsberg_us · 10/02/2018 6:29 am

That's a good list/resource. Apparently Moustakas has a mutual option for $15M next year. No idea if he and/or Milwaukee will want to exercise it.

30, 2.5 WAR. Without the baggage of draft pick compensation, I would think he could do better in free agency

APIAD · 10/02/2018 6:53 am

forsberg_us wrote:
That's a good list/resource. Apparently Moustakas has a mutual option for $15M next year. No idea if he and/or Milwaukee will want to exercise it.

30, 2.5 WAR. Without the baggage of draft pick compensation, I would think he could do better in free agency

That will be interesting to see what either party will do with the option. After last offseason idk that anyone knows what to expect. I could see pros and cons on each side of the fence.

artie_fufkin · 10/02/2018 8:01 am

Geez, I wonder if Heyward will opt out.

APIAD · 10/02/2018 10:25 am

artie_fufkin wrote:
Geez, I wonder if Heyward will opt out.

Can i debate this again? Lol, jk

APIAD · 10/16/2018 12:56 pm

oquendo isnt coming back

"Ron "Pop" Warner will move to third-base coach.

• Oliver Marmol will move from first-base coach to bench coach, which had been manned by Warner on an interim basis.

• Mark Budaska will remain as a hitting coach.

• George Greer will return to the minors as the Cardinals hitting strategy coordinator and roaming coach.

• Oquendo will serve in a coaching role at the team's facility in Jupiter. That will allow him to work with young infielders, and he will also get a chance to continue to work with big-league infielders during spring training and before formal workouts begin. He also will travel some, Mozeliak said, suggesting that Oquendo could visit with the major-league club at times.

The series of moves leaves the Cardinals with two openings, either of which Stubby Clapp will be a candidate for in 2019. Clapp, who is currently being eyed for a major-league managing position, possibly in Toronto, will get an interview for the hitting coach position.

If that does not work out or the Cardinals hire another candidate, they will offer him the first-base coach position for the 2019 season.

*Mozeliak expects to have a conversation with Rick Ankiel in the coming weeks about common ground on a contract that could lead Ankiel getting a shot to be a lefthanded reliever for the team.Marcell Ozuna will have a meeting with a specialist in Los Angeles in late October to determine the next course of treatment for his injured shoulder."

Last edited by APIAD (10/16/2018 12:57 pm)

JV · 10/16/2018 3:08 pm

Oquendo working with young infielders should be a plus. Hopefully Stubby sticks around in some role...hate to see the organization lose him. Ankiel as a reliever...is mind-boggling and exciting and scary all at the same time.

APIAD · 10/16/2018 3:57 pm

ankiel is a cool story but i think they have been charitable enough.

forsberg_us · 10/16/2018 5:07 pm

APIAD wrote:
*Mozeliak expects to have a conversation with Rick Ankiel in the coming weeks about common ground on a contract that could lead Ankiel getting a shot to be a lefthanded reliever for the team.

APIAD · 10/29/2018 6:01 pm

Jeff albert is the hitting coach

Stubby clapp first base coach

APIAD · 10/29/2018 7:06 pm

OCTOBER 29: Wainwright receives a $2MM guarantee, per Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter). Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link) has details on the extensive list of incentives. Wainwright can earn the following salary boosts:

For games started, he’ll earn $500K upon his fifth start, $1MM upon his tenth and 15th, $1.5MM for his twentieth, and $2MM apiece for his 25th and 30th. Maxing out this run of bonuses would add $8MM of salary.

For relief appearances, Wainwright can earn $500K apiece for every fifth appearance, beginning at #35 and ending at #60. That provides an avenue to $3MM in extra money.

For games finished, Wainwright will receive $500K for the 25th and 30th game in which he records the final out and $600K for every fifth game finished beginning at #35 and ending at #55. If Wainwright serves as the Cards’ closer and meets all of those thresholds, he’d tack on another $4MM, meaning he could in total earn up to an additional $7MM in a relief capacity.

Mags · 10/29/2018 8:27 pm

APIAD wrote:
OCTOBER 29: Wainwright receives a $2MM guarantee, per Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter). Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link) has details on the extensive list of incentives. Wainwright can earn the following salary boosts:

For games started, he’ll earn $500K upon his fifth start, $1MM upon his tenth and 15th, $1.5MM for his twentieth, and $2MM apiece for his 25th and 30th. Maxing out this run of bonuses would add $8MM of salary.

For relief appearances, Wainwright can earn $500K apiece for every fifth appearance, beginning at #35 and ending at #60. That provides an avenue to $3MM in extra money.

For games finished, Wainwright will receive $500K for the 25th and 30th game in which he records the final out and $600K for every fifth game finished beginning at #35 and ending at #55. If Wainwright serves as the Cards’ closer and meets all of those thresholds, he’d tack on another $4MM, meaning he could in total earn up to an additional $7MM in a relief capacity.

I know this has been talked about before, but I've never seen it discussed in real detail with a lot specifics.

It seems to me that this sort of a contract creates a hell of a conflict between the manager and one of his more influential team members. Waino purports to be very unconcerned about money, and I credit him for being as honest as a human can be on such matters. But I can see him getting his panties in a knot about paying for the drinking water and other charitable causes.

APIAD · 10/30/2018 6:01 am

It deffinatly seems like a double sided sword. The player is deffinatly more likely to play through injuries for the bonuses it would seem and the team seems to have motivation to cripple appearances if the results are replaceable.

artie_fufkin · 10/30/2018 7:56 am

"It seems to me that this sort of a contract creates a hell of a conflict between the manager and one of his more influential team members."

I don't disagree, but if there's one guy on the roster to whom you would feel comfortable giving a contract with so many incentives, it's Wainwright.

Mags · 10/30/2018 8:48 am

artie_fufkin wrote:
"It seems to me that this sort of a contract creates a hell of a conflict between the manager and one of his more influential team members."

I don't disagree, but if there's one guy on the roster to whom you would feel comfortable giving a contract with so many incentives, it's Wainwright.

As Madeleine Kahn might say, "So twue, so twue."

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