My personal line would be

Wong/bader
Carp
Goldschmidt
Ozuna
Dejong
Right fielder
Molina
Pitcher
Wong/bader

Idk why but im liking batting the pitcher 8th again.  Probably because i feel it takes advantage of wong and baders speed.

If the rightfielder is martinez you might bat him in front of dejong.  If it is oniell you might bat molina in front of him depending on performance.  If it is fowler and he doesnt rebound to 2017 level you might shuffle him to the bottom of the order.

I hope bader and/or wong can leadoff because of their speed and how it could set up the middle of the order.  I also think the carp/gold/ozuna portion of the lineup could be deadly for a lot of reasons. 

Idk but maybe moz understands that carp and Goldschmidt have to bat back to back and thats why he mentioned batting Goldschmidt second.  Which is what put the batting the pitcher 8th thing in my head. 

I agree with the team being held hostage by carp.

JV wrote:

artie_fufkin wrote:

Of course, on a team that isn't being held hostage by its MVP Candidate, it would make sense to bat the fastest runner they've had since Vince Coleman at the top of the lineup, followed by their lefthanded hitting second baseman who batted .317 after the all-star break, followed by an actual MVP candidate, followed by a leftfielder who drove in 124 runs the last time he had someone of Goldschmidt's skill hitting in front of him, 
Shildt seems like a fine fellow. The team played well once he took over, and he's clearly earned a chance to manage the team for 2019. But part of me thinks the Cardinals would better respond to a manager like Dick Williams or Earl Weaver who has the stones to tell Carpenter "Look, you're batting fifth. If that's going to make you unhappy, I don't care. I've got two other third basemen in camp who will bat ninth if I ask them."
 

Yep. Is there no St Louis reporter who will ask Carpenter directly why he thinks the team benefits from having his slow ass at leadoff?

Strauss is the only one who would have, and to paraphrase Rick Pitino, he's not walking through that door anytime soon.
The sabreheads love Carpenter because he draws walks. VEB has posted more paragraphs about the greatness of Matt Carpenter than there have been books written about the Civil War (not really, but I'm embellishing to make a point).
The Cardinals play-by-play guy wants to divorce his wife and bear Carpenter's children. When the out-of-town broadcasters come to town, they ask McLaughlin who is playing well and he talks up Carpenter, so word of his prowess spreads and the herd mentality starts. The national broadcasters who see the Cardinals play once a month pick up on it and all of a sudden Carpenter is an "MVP Candidate."
They don't see or don't choose to see that once he draws one of those leadoff walks, it takes at least two and sometimes three hits to score him. They don't see or don't choose to see him getting thrown out at the plate trying to score from third base on a single to centerfield. They don't see or don't choose to see him as a defensive liability anywhere he plays in the field. The don't see or don't choose to see him batting .170 with one home run in September, when his team is fighting for a playoff spot.
 

Last edited by artie_fufkin (12/09/2018 10:35 am)

artie_fufkin wrote:

JV wrote:

artie_fufkin wrote:

Of course, on a team that isn't being held hostage by its MVP Candidate, it would make sense to bat the fastest runner they've had since Vince Coleman at the top of the lineup, followed by their lefthanded hitting second baseman who batted .317 after the all-star break, followed by an actual MVP candidate, followed by a leftfielder who drove in 124 runs the last time he had someone of Goldschmidt's skill hitting in front of him, 
Shildt seems like a fine fellow. The team played well once he took over, and he's clearly earned a chance to manage the team for 2019. But part of me thinks the Cardinals would better respond to a manager like Dick Williams or Earl Weaver who has the stones to tell Carpenter "Look, you're batting fifth. If that's going to make you unhappy, I don't care. I've got two other third basemen in camp who will bat ninth if I ask them."
 

Yep. Is there no St Louis reporter who will ask Carpenter directly why he thinks the team benefits from having his slow ass at leadoff?

Strauss is the only one who would have, and to paraphrase Rick Pitino, he's not walking through that door anytime soon.
The sabreheads love Carpenter because he draws walks. VEB has posted more paragraphs about the greatness of Matt Carpenter than there have been books written about the Civil War (not really, but I'm embellishing to make a point).
The Cardinals play-by-play guy wants to divorce his wife and bear Carpenter's children. When the out-of-town broadcasters come to town, they ask McLaughlin who is playing well and he talks up Carpenter, so word of his prowess spreads and the herd mentality starts. The national broadcasters who see the Cardinals play once a month pick up on it and all of a sudden Carpenter is an "MVP Candidate."
They don't see or don't choose to see that once he draws one of those leadoff walks, it takes at least two and sometimes three hits to score him. They don't see or don't choose to see him getting thrown out at the plate trying to score from third base on a single to centerfield. They don't see or don't choose to see him as a defensive liability anywhere he plays in the field. The don't see or don't choose to see him batting .170 with one home run in September, when his team is fighting for a playoff spot.
 

For all his faults i still think the cardinals are a better team with him than without him. One would think baserunning could be taught.

In the mood for conversation starters.

Say the AAV for Goldschmidt and harper are the same.  Which i think they will be or close to being. 

Is harper a better long term sign at 10 years (harpers 26 i think)

Or is Goldschmidt a better sign on a 5 or 6 year contract. (He will be 31)

14 million doesnt hinder the cardinals ablity yo be in on harper.  If they believe he is the better long term sign they should be in on him.  Its debatable.  Imo a first baseman ages as well as anyone in baseball.  Especially a good defensive one who is a balanced hitter.

APIAD wrote:

14 million doesnt hinder the cardinals ablity yo be in on harper. If they believe he is the better long term sign they should be in on him. Its debatable. Imo a first baseman ages as well as anyone in baseball. Especially a good defensive one who is a balanced hitter.

I agree that the 14 million doesn't hinder their ability to sign Harper this year, but Harper's contract would limit their ability to re-sign Goldschmidt after 2019, and personally, I'd rather have Goldschmidt than Harper.

Also, signing Harper this year would limit their ability to fix the bullpen which is a bigger need than Harper.

forsberg_us wrote:

APIAD wrote:

14 million doesnt hinder the cardinals ablity yo be in on harper. If they believe he is the better long term sign they should be in on him. Its debatable. Imo a first baseman ages as well as anyone in baseball. Especially a good defensive one who is a balanced hitter.

I agree that the 14 million doesn't hinder their ability to sign Harper this year, but Harper's contract would limit their ability to re-sign Goldschmidt after 2019, and personally, I'd rather have Goldschmidt than Harper.

Also, signing Harper this year would limit their ability to fix the bullpen which is a bigger need than Harper.

Well that was my point.  If you are in the camp that believes harper is a better sign then Goldschmidt then there is still no reason to bid on harper.

However as perviously stated i believe Goldschmidt is a better fit for several reason.  Lack of supper long term commitment, playing first base and personality.

VEB says 6y 132mill

forsberg_us wrote:

APIAD wrote:

VEB says 6y 132mill

Too low.

Makes my 5/180 prediction seem high

Id project him to be about 2011-2016 pujols....slightly better given Goldschmidt has two feet.

Saw a stat last night that Harper's defensive runs saved in 2018 was -26, the second worst among outfielders. I assumed he was at least competent defensively. Having Bader in center allows you to paper over a bad rightfielder to a degree, but it's tough to legitimize paying $30 million to a guy who is going to give back one run for every four he drives in.
I think I'd rather have O'Neill in right, at 1.5 percent the cost.

Mags wrote:

artie_fufkin wrote:

Saw a stat last night that Harper's defensive runs saved in 2018 was -26, the second worst among outfielders. I assumed he was at least competent defensively. Having Bader in center allows you to paper over a bad rightfielder to a degree, but it's tough to legitimize paying $30 million to a guy who is going to give back one run for every four he drives in.
I think I'd rather have O'Neill in right, at 1.5 percent the cost.

The more I've seen of Harper the more my dislike of Papelbon has softened.  I really would not want to see the Cards acquire Harper at half the price.  With the acquisition of Goldschmidt, the Cards need for RF has shifted more toward defense even though it would be nice to have a big bat there too.  I'm not excited about O'Neill but I'd like to have him for his defense and what LaRussa called "danger."  So far, he appears to be the type of hitter that you can't count on and that you can't count out.  Somewhat like Matt Adams.
 

Where you and I differ is I don't care about a player having Harper's "flair" or "attitude" or whatever you want to call it, if he's good enough to back it up.  Where you and I agree is I'm not sure Harper is good enough to have Harper's "flair," part of which is based on the stat Artie cited.  He's actually a pretty bad defensive outfielder.

I read somewhere that Boras is trying to market Harper as baseball's version of Lebron James.  I can't stand James, but he's led his team to 8 straight NBA finals.  Harper still hasn't played in the NLCS.

forsberg_us wrote:

APIAD wrote:

Id project him to be about 2011-2016 pujols....slightly better given Goldschmidt has two feet.

I don’t think his decline is that soon. Pujols was heavier and already having knee/feet issues which made it hard for him to stay in shape. Goldschmidt is a much better athlete. He stole 30 bases 2 or 3 years ago.

Plus 2011 Pujols may have been 3-4 years older than we were led to believe.

I agree.  Individual comparisons are really not helpful when it comes to prediction of future performance.  Frank Robinson was about a year younger that Goldschmidt when the Reds practically gave him away because they said he was "an old 30."  One MVP award later, he didn't look so old.  One of my early heroes, Al Kaline, came on the scene at 20 years of age (after one year riding the bench as a bonus baby and one year is a RF replacement for 138 games) to lead the AL in BA, Hits, and Total Bases.  After that, he never really topped those totals but performed at an incredibly consistent level for the remainder of his 22 years, slightly falling of at the end.  

The problem with the Pujols comparison is that I have seen very few, if any, players perform at his level since the very first season.  Mickey Mantle might have been one.  But, like Mantle, injuries (and perhaps other factors) (such as unacknowledged age) made his productive career much shorter than I would have predicted.
 

Last edited by Mags (12/11/2018 3:18 pm)