And I don't have anything against you, and never did TK.  I was surprised when you made it personal--it came out of the blue--and I definitely was not among those who recced your post that you were going to stop posting all those years back.  I thought those rec's were mean-spirited.

You occasionally rant about my ignorance and how my posts are stupid, but often back it up with little more than thread-bare arguments when the simpler thing would be to just go back and admit you were wrong.  Have you gone back and watched the pitch to Morse?  Wouldn't it be easier to just say, "yeah, I can see why someone would call that a meat pitch, and I suspect that a guy who had 15 bombs in 266 ABs last year probably feels he could have and should have done something with that pitch"???

Of all the "arguments" that have arisen on this board, this one seems to make the least sense.

Boggs came into the game with a 2 run lead.  In that situation, I expect the closer to throw strikes--even if they're meat pitches.  A solo home run can't beat you. 

I didn't see all of Boggs' pitches, but the box score said he threw 15 pitches, 12 of which were strikes.  As Alz said, compared to the Isringhausen days, that's pretty good stuff.

TK, if you can link the Pitch Fx charts, I'd love to see the data that is being argued.

Discuss.  I need to go mow the yard before it rains agains. 

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/pfx.php?s_type=3&sp_type=1&batterX=0&month=04&day=20&game=gid_2011_04_20_wasmlb_slnmlb_2%2F&year=2011&pitchSel=459939&prevGame=gid_2011_04_20_wasmlb_slnmlb_2%2F

That was the most nerdy thing I've ever seen in my life (That's saying something, considering I've been programming computers for 18 years), and if you're expecting me to be able to contribute anything of value off that, you're in for dissappointment.

Here's what I see from these graphs.

First, very little Boggs threw went straight.

Second, I'm not entirely sure I know whether these graphs are looking in from the mound or out from home plate.  I'm assuming it's the latter since Boggs' slider would break to the catcher's right, and that seems to be what's reflected in the graphs.

The first pitch to Ramos was on the inner half, probably about belt high.  It was 94 mph and moved 12 inches toward Ramos.  Certainly a hittable pitch, but I wouldn't call it a "meat pitch," particularly with that velocity and movement.  The fourth pitch was up, but it started out inside and broke back over the plate.  Up and in isn't a bad spot to a right hander, and the speed contrast (94, 96, 95 then 84) probably made that pitch unhittable.

The second pitch to Morse looks like a bad pitch.  That was pretty close to the center of the plate and didn't have much movement.  Probably the only thing that saved it was that it was an 85 mph slider following a 94 mph fastball.  The 4th pitch was a pretty good pitch.  Don't be fooled by the ultimate location.  That pitch was 97 mph and broke 13 inches back toward Morse.  Morse wouldn't have realized it was going to be a strike until it was too late which is why it ended up a weak groundout to first base.  The only way he does anything with that pitch is if he guesses fastball and swings.

The first pitch to Nix was a similar pitch.  Nix is left handed, so instead of breaking toward him it would move away.  The pitch was 95 mph and broke 9 inches.  Since it ended up on the inner half, that pitch either started inside or right on the black.  Again, you're focusing on the ultimate location and not on where it starts and movement.  That's not a bad pitch.

By my count, I see one really bad pitch and three others that finished near center, but started no where near there and had enough velocity that a hitter wouldn't have time to react to the movement.

Quite frankly Max, I'm not sure what you're complaining about.  Sanchez threw probably an equal proportion of his pitches in or near the same location.  Are all of those "meat pitches" also?  Because if they are, there are a whole lot of major leaguers looking awfully stupid looking at those "meat pitches."

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/pfx.php?month=4&day=20&year=2011&game=gid_2011_04_20_wasmlb_slnmlb_2%2F&pitchSel=500674&prevGame=gid_2011_04_20_wasmlb_slnmlb_2%2F&prevDate=0420

Last edited by forsberg_us (4/21/2011 2:23 pm)

forsberg_us wrote:

Here's what I see from these graphs.

I will agree with you, Fors, that the horizontal movement estimated in these graphs makes the pitches seem more difficult than where there final location was.  I would like to hear a discussion as to how to read the negative values of horizontal movement, and how accurate they are.  First, when I watch them on the replay, they don't seem to move anywhere near that much.  So i am wondering if I don't know how to read the charts properly, of if perhaps they are not that accurate at measuring.  For example, it almost seems like they are measuring the movement from release point to the point they cross the plate, but not actually measuring any curve in the ball (notice the one blue release point that was almost side arm, and wonder if that might not be the 4th pitch to Morse that supposedly had a horizontal movement of 13-14 inches, or whatever).  Another thing is that having watched these measurements for the past year or so, I have noticed that a really, really good curveball might have a break of 15-16", whereas a fastball typically has more like 4-6".  But this thing is registering Boggs's 4 seam fastballs as having a break right up there with the best curveballs in the league and that strikes me as something odd that deserves a little investigation or explanation.

So, we can agree that there was at least one meat pitch, and three others that wound up going over the heart of the plate.  How hittable those three were is a bit questionable in my mind, at least until we have a better idea of to read these graphs and how accurate they are.  Watch the replays, those fastballs don't seem to be breaking 12-14 inches to me.

Yes, there are rays of sunshine coming out of the bullpen, and it is an enviable position to be in to have options.

It's possible that I am not seeing the horizontal movement, of course, but that still doesn't explain how Boggs's fastball has as much break as an excellent curveball.  So, I still want to learn more about how that is being measured, and if it mightn't be based on the release point.

artie_fufkin wrote:

"for people of Artie's ilk"

Excuse me? What's my ilk? I haven't involved myself in this discussion at all, other than to opine a live human being is responsible for compiling the the Gameday chart, to which TK replied rather graciously that I'm mistaken. I've been involved in enough disputes on this board. Please leave me out of this one.

And that's exactly what I was responding to, Artie.  It wasn't meant as a criticism.  Rather that you had already encouraged us to not be so reliant on the geeky computerized pitching evaluators out there.