I'm always up. Btw, max, I think if you want to criticize a Boggs performance, this was the one. That Votto flyball was smoked. But it's like Tone points out -- Boggs is real hard to square up. Sanchez, too.

tkihshbt wrote:

I'm always up. Btw, max, I think if you want to criticize a Boggs performance, this was the one. That Votto flyball was smoked. But it's like Tone points out -- Boggs is real hard to square up. Sanchez, too.

Boggs still got the 4 out save.  That is pretty impressive.  Snachez had a couple of wild pitches.  How did he look?  Did the pressure of facing hitter with men on get to him?

Max wrote:

tkihshbt wrote:

I'm always up. Btw, max, I think if you want to criticize a Boggs performance, this was the one. That Votto flyball was smoked. But it's like Tone points out -- Boggs is real hard to square up. Sanchez, too.

i didn't even think i was criticizing boggs: he got the job done, but he also laid out some meat pitches.  it was just an observation, like a batter who takes some bad swings but manages to make good contact when it counts . . . say, Prince Fielder. 

last night i wasn't paying enough attention to the watching the pitches themselves, being wiped out from a six hour ordeal to drive down to the airport with two kids, wait for my MiL as she waited in customs, and then drive back. 

the thing i noticed last night was la russa asking boggs to come in for one out in the 8th.  i'm not a fan of that, as it seems that really top relievers are best when they are used in very limited roles as one inning specialists, or even one out specialists.  far too often the damage done to a reliever comes when he asked to come out for a second inning.  so, especially with the bullpen in such flux, i think it would be better for the future if la russa avoided stuff like that, which could backfire, and thereby stunt the development of a blossoming closer, like boggs.

So you're suggesting that it would have been wiser to leave Motte in the game and risk losing the lead?

Makes perfect sense.

Boggs was a starter as recently as 2009, and he was the long reliever last season. He's familiar with pitching multiple innings.

From 2008-10, Rivera had 21 saves of 4 outs or more.

"That Votto flyball was smoked."

And probably a homer in GAB. Thank goodness the Cardinals didn't build their ballpark to suit Adam Dunn.

Max wrote:

tkihshbt wrote:

I'm always up. Btw, max, I think if you want to criticize a Boggs performance, this was the one. That Votto flyball was smoked. But it's like Tone points out -- Boggs is real hard to square up. Sanchez, too.

i didn't even think i was criticizing boggs: he got the job done, but he also laid out some meat pitches.  it was just an observation, like a batter who takes some bad swings but manages to make good contact when it counts . . . say, Prince Fielder. 

last night i wasn't paying enough attention to the watching the pitches themselves, being wiped out from a six hour ordeal to drive down to the airport with two kids, wait for my MiL as she waited in customs, and then drive back. 

the thing i noticed last night was la russa asking boggs to come in for one out in the 8th.  i'm not a fan of that, as it seems that really top relievers are best when they are used in very limited roles as one inning specialists, or even one out specialists.  far too often the damage done to a reliever comes when he asked to come out for a second inning.  so, especially with the bullpen in such flux, i think it would be better for the future if la russa avoided stuff like that, which could backfire, and thereby stunt the development of a blossoming closer, like boggs.

I don't think TLR is a fan of the 4-out closer either. Last night's game was unusual. He doesn't have a second lefty in the pen, and Batista obviously wasn't available. If the game starts on time, he probably goes with Miller and Sanchez/Motte in the seventh, Batista in the eighth and Boggs in the ninth, but without Batista in the mix, if the game goes into extra innings, the only guy you have out there who's capable of pitching more than one inning is Salas.

I used those years because I was looking it up on my blackberry and the "game log" feature went back to 2008. It might actually increase if you went back further. Torre was notorious for bringing Rivera in during the 8th. It wasn't as rare as you suggested.

It wasn't an issue. You made it sound like Larussa made a foolish decision. If Motte had pitched an effective 8th, Boggs wouldn't have entered in the 8th. But Motte was ineffective, Batista and Sanchez had already pitched and Salas was the long inning option if the game went to extra innings. The only options were Miller against a RH hitter, Franklin, an ineffective Motte or Boggs. Larussa made the call that gave them the best chance to win.

Here's more:

Let's assume Rivera, at this point, is arguably the best closer in history.  I don't have easy access to his game-by-game stats, but some things worth noting:

His career ERA:

in pitches 1-15 vs. 16-30: 0.82 vs. 5.19

Let's compare these with a pretty good starter, Chris Carpenter:

in pitches 1-15 vs. 16-30: 4.8 vs. 2.97

Thus, even a really good closer's effectiveness goes WAY down as pitch count goes up, whereas as a starter is almost the opposite; they get better after the first few pitches.

To be fair, these stats don't tell the whole story, since a closer only throws more than 15 pitches when something has gone wrong in the first 15, and the damage is more likely to come AFTER the 15th pitch is thrown.  So, we'd really need to a stat along the lines of A) S/S0 for one inning S0 and compare that to B) S/SO for >1 inning saves.  I suspect that B<A. 

But you could still take me to task for saying that it is "rare" that Rivera is even sent in for SO>1IP, and that would depend on ones definition of "rare".  If it's up around 25% as your numbers might suggest, then I'd say I was probably wrong, and it isn't rare, just uncommon.  If it's down below 10% then maybe I could try to argue that I was correct and that it is, indeed, "rare".  Regardless, my fallback position is that I may have chosen my words poorly (and might have been mistaken about how the Yankees use Rivera, as well).

The bottom line, far from contending that La Russa did something foolish, I commented that La Russa sometimes accepts some pain today in exchange for a stronger club later in the season, and I commend him for that and think I have learned some of what makes a good manager over these years by watching, talking, and discussing (the year he ran K1p W3lls out there every fifth day, when it was clear Wells was not up to it, was perhaps the moment when the lightbulb turned on for me).  In light of all this, what I noticed that night, was not Boggs pitches, as TK did, but rather that La Russa sent Boggs out for a 4-out SO.  That surprised me a bit, and indicated to me that La Russa was managing to win that one game, whereas if he had been doing his more common thing--manage each moment as if the season is a long slog--he might have avoided putting Boggs into a situation where a closer is more likely to fail (assuming that pitchers are less likely to successfully convert >3-out SO).

Last edited by Max (4/24/2011 11:04 am)

forsberg_us wrote:

I really don't have a clue what you're trying to say, but if you're surprised that Larussa tried to win a game against the team's biggest rival in the first game of the series, then you haven't paid attention for the last 15 years.

Larussa may occasionally sacrifice one game for the good of the season, but it's usually against an insignificant team in the 3rd game of a series when the team has already won the first two.

And alot of times the "B" lineup puts out a pretty good effort.  I think everytime I think TLR is giving one up they end up winning it or being really close to winning it.