Good analysis. Berkman's offense thus far has far out-weighed his defensive shortcomings, but he's not going to end up .360/40/100, or whatever pace he's on through the first 1/4 of the season. The more he plays, the more he will revert to the mean, and the more he plays in the outfield, the risk for injury increases.
I think a wise course would be to play him exclusively against right-handed starters and put Craig out there against lefties. Unfortunately, that tends to diminish Jay's role to that of a late-inning defensive replacement, and I still tend to believe that Jay would be most effective if you put him in the leadoff spot and left him alone.

Last edited by artie_fufkin (5/13/2011 9:00 am)

APRTW wrote:

Berkman has been that bad in right field.  Not bad at all really.

He hasn't been Ichiro, but he hasn't cost them any games either. Still, there's no way he even comes close to making that catch Jay made in Tuesday's game.

APRTW wrote:

Berkman has been that bad in right field.  Not bad at all really.

did you watch him let the ball sail over his head at wrigley the other day and bounce on the warning track?

in fairness, i think that is him trying to protect himself from injury, but he gave up a double right there.  and let's not forget the throw, which made it to what could be generously called shallow right-center field.  again, i think he is protecting his elbow from injury.  but he looks very limited in the outfield.

Last edited by Max (5/13/2011 5:38 pm)

Max wrote:

i hope i am wrong, because i really want the guy to succeed.

Riiiiiiight.

In one capacity or another, Jay has appeared in 36 of 38 games. He's hitting .286 with an OBP of over .400.  I think the Cardinals can find a place for him. 

Remind me again, when did Bo Hart post similar numbers in his second season?  It shouldn't be hard. He didn't play that many.

forsberg_us wrote:

Max wrote:

i hope i am wrong, because i really want the guy to succeed.

Riiiiiiight.

In one capacity or another, Jay has appeared in 36 of 38 games. He's hitting .286 with an OBP of over .400.  I think the Cardinals can find a place for him. 

Remind me again, when did Bo Hart post similar numbers in his second season?  It shouldn't be hard. He didn't play that many.

Go back to the record, Fors.  I was either the very first, or among the very first, among us to sing his praises after that CF assist early last season.

You take the Bo Hart comparison as stupid and as a sign that I don't want him to succeed.  You must have missed every post i made about him prior to that one comment.

And for the record, his BA the day before was .250, and the last time his season BA was .286 was a month ago, when he had a total of 14 ABs.

Max, I'd be happy to have a "sensible discussion" on the topic, but I'd need to first know which Max I've having it with.  At times, you indicate your preference for "baseball men" who don't merely rely on statistics, rather they rely on what they see and their knowledge of how to trust their eyes.  One recent example I can remember is when we were discussion Boggs and whether or not his fastball had movement.  You apparently went so far as to contact the person who runs the Pitch Fx system because their data contradicted your observations.

At other times, you seem a slave to pure statistics.  Your entire comparison of Jay to Bo Hart is based on 2 months worth of statistical data.  It doesn't take into account any of the other skills Jay brings (such as the ability to play above average defense at 3 outfield positions), nor does it take into account that Jay, even when he's going poorly, only occasionally looks over-matched at the plate.  In contrast, it was fairly obvious to anyone with eyes, that Bo Hart was grossly overmatched as a big leaguer and once pitchers figured out to stop throwing him fastballs, he was done.  A "baseball man" would see and understand that Jay was making adjustments that Hart was incapable of making.  Thus my position that comparing the 2 was stupid. 

You made a similar analysis of Berkman before the season started and concluded that his career was over.  It wasn't based on anything you had actually seen, it was based purely on statistics.

I have no idea how often a rookie bursts onto the scene and hits .400 and then falls off, but my guess is that it isn't as rare as you might think--mostly for the reason you just said.  When hitters come up from the minors, the available information is limited.  The advantage tends to go to the newbie.  But after a while, pitchers/hitters figure them out.  Then the burden is on the newbie to make adjustments to survive.

The Garcia to Valenzuela comparison is based as much on heritage, the two being left-handed, and the story that Garcia idolized Valenzuela growing up as it is based on statistics.  Garcia was very good last year (and this year), but Valenzuela led the league in complete games, shutouts and strikeouts.  Same with Heyward and Aaron.  They're both African-Americans who came up playing right field in the Braves system.  Also Heyward, despite still being a young man, carries himself in a much more mature manner.  There are a lot of people hoping that Heyward becomes the beacon for encouraging African-American youth to rediscover baseball.  I think that has much more to do with the comparisons to Aaron than any expectation that Heyward might hit another 700 HR before he's done.

Quite honestly, I think your comparison of Jay to Schumaker is spot on.  They're both left handed, can play all 3 outfield positions and, if given comparable at bats, I suspect Jay could put up numbers similar to Skip.  But, he won't hit 20 HR, nor will he steal 20 bases, so Jay probably will never be a regular starting outfielder.  But for the switch to 2B, Skip wouldn't be a regular either.  I suspect that's where Jay ends up, but that's a far cry from Bo Hart.

Max wrote:

In the long haul, we can agree that jay is shaping up more along the Schumaker mold.  Neither have the power nor the speed to be starting outfielders on a contender, but both are the kind of guy who Card fans, myself included, really want to see succeed . . . at least until their salary bumps northward and their presence on the roster and on the field jeopardizes the team's chances.

Or until their manager makes an ill-advised decision to switch them to second basemen.

"Speaking of which, look who's batting .300!"

Jon Jay is a god.

forsberg_us wrote:

In all seriousness, that was a really good at-bat by Jay.

It was a great at bat. I like Jay. A lot. I've liked him since I saw him in the CWS when he was a freshman. I was thrilled when they drafted him, and I was thrilled when he made it to The Show. The diety thing is in jest, but I'm a big fan.